Turkey Season -- Warm and Wet

Discussion in 'Turkey Hunting' started by shaman, Dec 2, 2020.

  1. shaman

    shaman 10 pointer

    I made predictions for Kentucky for the November Modern Weapons Season for deer. Some folks thought they were helpful, so I'm going to give y'all my prediction for the next Spring Gobbler Season.

    In short: Warm and Wet

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    The CPC has extended its advisory for the current La Nina event into at least May of 2021. This brings more warm fronts out of the Gulf of Mexico and blocks the cold air coming out of Canada.

    Here is what the CPC is currently predicting for March-May 2021:

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    A hint on reading those two maps: These are probabilities of above/below temps and precipitation. The orange band in the temperature map that is over KY shows an elevated chance for warmer weather. The green blob means a better chance of more rain.

    If you're looking for a better clue about how this has played out in the past, here are some years where La Nina conditions were in effect:

    1994–95 1998–2001 2005–06 2007–08 2008–09 2010–12 2016 2017–18 2020

    I don't know about you, but I've had some of my best seasons in these years. I've filled both my tags.
     
    Duckwisperer likes this.
  2. KYH5N1

    KYH5N1 10 pointer

    I've filled both my tags in years like that too, and in every other spring weather pattern also. Lol. Yall have fun with the forcast, I'll worry about what I "can" control.
     
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  3. Tom Threetoes

    Tom Threetoes 10 pointer

    1,067
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    Oct 4, 2002
    southern Indiana.
    I've hunted in long johns I've hunted in shirt sleeves I've hunted in rain gear, it's all good. It's all turkey hunting!
     
  4. xbokilla

    xbokilla 12 pointer

    12,119
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    Hmmm. Who would have thought it would be rainy in the Spring?
     
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  5. Feedman

    Feedman Cyber-Hunter

    12,464
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    May 28, 2003
    In the basement
    Always rains a few days during turkey season
     
  6. shaman

    shaman 10 pointer

    Warmer and Wetter? Here are some thoughts:

    1) Warmer than Average usually means a better chance of bagging one on The Opener. I've nailed a handful of them that first weekend. It's actually become more of a thing for me during the past decade. However, I will say that given the list of La Nina years, they've all happened during La Nina conditions. I have varying levels of clothing for turkey hunting so that I can stay comfortable from the mid-20's all the way up to summer conditions. What I can tell you is that my luckiest kit is that which I wear for a low in the mid-50's. That's about 20 degrees warmer than what I'm facing when I'm buttoned up for an average morning hunt.

    2) Wetter than Average doesn't mean a whole lot in and of itself. I, like most of you, have taken them in all sorts of conditions. However, cloudy conditions follow rain, and clouds change things. When there is bright sun out, I believe turkeys have a hard time seeing certain things. They have spectacular eyesight, but they seem to be flummoxed by high-contrast situations. If I'm sitting behind tall grass and the sun is shining the grass and I'm in the shade, I don't think turkeys see me as well. The only reason why I know this is that given the same setup and cloudy conditions, I've been busted. I also have a few setups that rely on burlap blinds. Those blinds are nearly transparent when they have sunlight going through them.

    3) One weather condition that seems to be conducive to turkey hunting is thunderstorms. I've watched gobbler go wild in advance of fronts producing thunderstorms, and I've seen lots of activity after thunderstorms have abated. The good news is that La Nina generally causes more thunderstorm activity in the Greater Ohio Valley.
     
  7. Munson

    Munson 12 pointer

    2,647
    2,478
    Dec 24, 2011
    Natural Bridge
    Here's to hoping you're correct! :)
    Not only for Turkey but shrooms like warm&wet too. Last year's fruit trees was a bust with the late may freeze, another year like that my canned goods supply will be hurting.
    Matter of fact im ready for sunny&75 already:cool:
     
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  8. shaman

    shaman 10 pointer

    Update: The CPC issued updates on 12/17, and so far there are no changes in their prediction for the coming turkey season-- warm and wet.
     
  9. shaman

    shaman 10 pointer

    Here's another thing to consider: This La Nina pattern means that not only the spring is going to be warm and wet, but also the winter. We're heading into the coldest part of the year, but the Greater Ohio Valley is looking at significantly warmer temperatures. For turkeys, it is significant that the overnight lows are staying in the 20's and not going lower. Additionally, we're probably going to get through the 3rd week of January without significant snowfall.

    1) No snow and the ground remaining unfrozen means the abundant acorn supply remains easily accessed
    2) Warm temps mean less stress on the birds
    3) Warm temps mean the insects that normally get frozen out will survive. I've got a live cameras set up at camp, and they're picking up moths flying at night.
     
  10. shaman

    shaman 10 pointer

    I have seen the latest long-term forecasts for the next few months. There are some developments, but the overall trend is still warm and wet throughout the Greater Ohio Valley during Spring Gobbler. We're still in that rather strong La Nina pattern all the way into summer.

    The one bit of change is that Kentucky may not be inundated to quite the extent that previous forecasts predicted. There was a big green bullseye over central KY, and that seems to have dissipated.

    In the near term, continue to expect a dramatically warmer, wetter winter.
     
  11. Grago

    Grago 10 pointer

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    I will take warm and wet, love light rainy days, go to yhe fields..
     
  12. Drahts

    Drahts 12 pointer

    3,927
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    Apr 7, 2015
    KY
    I'll take whatever the good Lord sends us. I'll still kill birds.
     
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  13. hoene

    hoene 8 pointer

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    May 8, 2012
    Northern Ky
    It will probably change 10 times before the season starts.
     
  14. Feedman

    Feedman Cyber-Hunter

    12,464
    6,456
    May 28, 2003
    In the basement
    Warm an Wet is always good
     
  15. riverboss

    riverboss 12 pointer

    5,829
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    Jan 26, 2009
    northern ky
    The big question is do you have ammo to kill said turkey when it's time?
    I bought 2 box's over the weekend of 20 ga long beard, it was expensive but now I don't have to be nervous!
     
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