Forecast for Rifle Season

raidergson

10 pointer
Dec 10, 2010
1,187
Garrard County
That's cool, I'll follow the science and common sense. I posted a question about when peak rut, or chasing occurs, and everyone said the same thing. Moon phases change year to year on a given day, but deer/rut activity doesn't. Agree to disagree.
I agree with some of what you say, but to say that the Moon phases changes year to year, but rut/ activity is constant year to year? We all know that rut falls during a period between October and December, and dynamic to say the least. To say that rut doesn’t change is false….the moon phase changes… and the rut changes year to year. Rut is a lot like leaf change… it will happen in a prescribed time frame, but many factors are at play, and the moon might contribute. It is hard to prove or disprove because of this. I for one fully believe in the Hunters moon. I sure that I studied the same science as you, and I follow it, but nature does not have controls; only controls have controls, and nature seems to fool us over and over. This is proven. Around my area no dead deer on the roads…..Hunter’s moon…3 dead the next week. We know that deer move and feed more with a bright moon. As far as does actually coming in heat, you should tell us the primary reason then….temp, daylight, genetic programming? Deer near the Equator do a totally different thing.
 
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Adam Gabrielli

6 pointer
Apr 23, 2021
104
Atlanta GA
You went to school for the deer rut?
I went to school and got a degree in biology... I did a project on deer movement and studied them due to the fact I was hunting in college. Do I have a PhD in deer, no, have I studied them enough to understand what dictates movement, yes...
 

Adam Gabrielli

6 pointer
Apr 23, 2021
104
Atlanta GA
I can't disagree with that. I've been trying to watch and pay attention to the moon, pressure, weather. I think the moonlight causes more night activity, but not sure I can prove that if the sky is overcast.
Been reading and looking at stuff like this for years then I will see deer on the days where forecasts say it's a "dead period". It's just difficult to say.
I haven't found anything concrete that says it does or doesn't play a factor but I find it all interesting so I'll keep watching.
I will say I've always heard more births happen on the moon but I've seen articles pro and against that. I'll say that everyone I know in healthcare says it's a factor....but I realize that's not "Internet documented".
I'll admit that many experts on deer disagree on many things, but the overwhelming evidence on what causes movements point more to weather and feeding cycles than the moon alone. Does go into estrus regardless of moon and feeding patterns. What dictates rut activity as we know it, as hunters, is when deer are on their feet and when does are actually receptive.
 

Adam Gabrielli

6 pointer
Apr 23, 2021
104
Atlanta GA
I agree with some of what you say, but to say that the Moon phases changes year to year, but rut/ activity is constant year to year? We all know that rut falls during a period between October and December, and dynamic to say the least. To say that rut doesn’t change is false….the moon phase changes… and the rut changes year to year. Rut is a lot like leaf change… it will happen in a prescribed time frame, but many factors are at play, and the moon might contribute. It is hard to prove or disprove because of this. I for one fully believe in the Hunters moon. I sure that I studied the same science as you, and I follow it, but nature does not have controls; only controls have controls, and nature seems to fool us over and over. This is proven. Around my area no dead deer on the roads…..Hunter’s moon…3 dead the next week. We know that deer move and feed more with a bright moon. As far as does actually coming in heat, you should tell us the primary reason then….temp, daylight, genetic programming? Deer near the Equator do a totally different thing.
Deer movement in full moon is partially influential. But it is well known deer move more at night, regardless of moon phase due to cover of darkness. That said, many scientists agree moon phase can influence feeding patterns and lead to more activity at night. As for what triggers deer to go into estrus, that's still up for debate. We know genetics plays a factor. So if a doe goes into estrus on a given week in November, her offspring will follow suit. It has more to do with climate within a given region than anything else. Does have fawns earlier in areas that experience earlier or harsher winters to ensure survival. Does in a given area will be part of a family unit - ie descendants of each other so genetics passed down from generation to generation have the biggest impact. Climate change, like draught, famine or harsh winters can temporarily affect it as well.
 

120+

12 pointer
Aug 22, 2006
16,778
You can't get there from here.
I'll admit that many experts on deer disagree on many things, but the overwhelming evidence on what causes movements point more to weather and feeding cycles than the moon alone. Does go into estrus regardless of moon and feeding patterns. What dictates rut activity as we know it, as hunters, is when deer are on their feet and when does are actually receptive.
I do believe the doe dictates the cycle but there are so many articles that contradict each other.

All I know is the second and third week of November seem to be the crazy period each year from what I read.
Funny thing is, I see/experience more activity during the last week of October and the first week of November. Probably because I prefer to be in the woods with a bow so I'm in the stand more.
However, I have probably have killed more deer on the second weekend of gun season, as far as getting a shot at a dominate buck. Of course that varies as well. Gun season can start on the 8th or the 14th.
 

Adam Gabrielli

6 pointer
Apr 23, 2021
104
Atlanta GA
I do believe the doe dictates the cycle but there are so many articles that contradict each other.

All I know is the second and third week of November seem to be the crazy period each year from what I read.
Funny thing is, I see/experience more activity during the last week of October and the first week of November. Probably because I prefer to be in the woods with a bow so I'm in the stand more.
However, I have probably have killed more deer on the second weekend of gun season, as far as getting a shot at a dominate buck. Of course that varies as well. Gun season can start on the 8th or the 14th.
Yep, the moon phase will vary during those periods too. But honestly, whether a doe is "hot" or not doesn't matter. Come the last week in October through the week of Thanksgiving, bucks are on their feet searching. Activity will spurt depending on weather and if a doe comes into estrus, but at the end of the day, the bucks don't care about ANY of that. Shorten day length triggers them to start searching. Combine that with a good cold snap and it's game on. Add a hot doe or 2 in a given area, and it's the stuff we dream about.
 

120+

12 pointer
Aug 22, 2006
16,778
You can't get there from here.
Photoperiod. The same primary reason that drives leaves changing colors, at virtually the same predictable time each fall.
Photoperiod plays more for deer than leaves in my opinion. Rain plays more of a part for leaves. This year the colors seem to be later since we've had rain.
I have pics from last year and compared to this year we are behind a week or two.
 

Ataulbe1

12 pointer
Oct 27, 2017
3,711
Estill County
I do believe the doe dictates the cycle but there are so many articles that contradict each other.

All I know is the second and third week of November seem to be the crazy period each year from what I read.
Funny thing is, I see/experience more activity during the last week of October and the first week of November. Probably because I prefer to be in the woods with a bow so I'm in the stand more.
However, I have probably have killed more deer on the second weekend of gun season, as far as getting a shot at a dominate buck. Of course that varies as well. Gun season can start on the 8th or the 14th.
Agree about the 2nd week of gun season. Would like to see one of the "peak breeding" studies specific to Ky. The wildest chases I've seen were all 2nd week of gun season around the 20th which seems late. Maybe they're realizing it's their last chance for a year! Lol
 

120+

12 pointer
Aug 22, 2006
16,778
You can't get there from here.
Agree about the 1nd week of gun season. Would like to see one of the "peak breeding" studies specific to Ky. The wildest chases I've seen were all 2nd week of gun season around the 20th which seems late. Maybe they're realizing it's their last chance for a year! Lol
I don't think there is enough reports to be concrete. I think Northern Kentucky would/can/is different than southern. Otherwise there's no explanation to the Alabama rut being in December. Has to be due to the daylight amount.
 

Adam Gabrielli

6 pointer
Apr 23, 2021
104
Atlanta GA
I don't think there is enough reports to be concrete. I think Northern Kentucky would/can/is different than southern. Otherwise there's no explanation to the Alabama rut being in December. Has to be due to the daylight amount.
Thing with southern deer is all the cross breading. Remember, back in the 60s many Wisconsin reds were released in the south to build up the herd. So deer with different genetics bred causing a trickle rut that varies from location to location within each southern state.
 

Adam Gabrielli

6 pointer
Apr 23, 2021
104
Atlanta GA
I'll summarize with this: the moon doesn't dictate when a doe actually comes into estrus. Rut activity as we know it, or when we see bucks cruising, fighting and chasing is dictated by photo period (shortened daylight) and weather. When we see heightened rut activity, bucks actually chasing does, it's influenced by a does feeding patterns (with some moon phase influences) and the weather. So, when the days get shorter, bucks are triggered to search out does. When the right feeding patterns and weather line up, does will move more in the day and the chances of seeing buck activity also increases. Once a doe is actually is receptive, that buck activity falls off. IMO, the 2 weeks in late October into November are the best times to catch bucks in the day time, weather permitting - like the 4,5,6 and 7th of November should have all deer on their feet with Temps dropping the way they are.
 


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