Forecast for Rifle Season

[shaman]

The long-range forecasts at the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) just came out (like within the past few minutes). The news is good.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/

As you can see, pretty much the whole of Kentucky is predicted to have higher-than-average temperatures and normal precipitation. There has been a lot of hoo-haw over the advent of another La Nina winter. However, this has not influenced the situation in November. There is more coming from the CPC soon, but suffice it to say that La Nina usually brings warmer, wetter conditions to the Greater Ohio Valley. At this point I don't see it impinging on Rifle Season.

This October prediction is usually the first time we see signs of trouble if they're coming. I'm sure you all remember the cold snap in 2019. It first turned up in the mid-October forecast.

If you follow other sources, a good number of them are saying it's going to be cold and snowy for Thanksgiving Week. This CPC forecast disagrees and I've found the CPC to be more accurate.

Da Moon
I just want to mention that the Rifle Opener starts on 11/13. It's about Day 7 of the lunar cycle and the full moon is on tap for the next weekend. I just finished off a quick post on how the moon influences deer season. It's here if you like to see it:

Hunting the Full Moon

 

[keeruss8]

Why would you want higher than average temps? Doesn't make sense to me

 

[davers]

Why would you want higher than average temps? Doesn't make sense to me

If the temps are much above normal, Deer will be moving at night. Remember they have their winter coats on now. If the weather prediction are accurate, then Deer Season will be just "So-So" and Deer will move more at night.

 

[120+]

Why would you want higher than average temps? Doesn't make sense to me

You don't. Not sure why he considers it favorable.

 

[shaman]

Why would you want higher than average temps? Doesn't make sense to me

If you look at the map, the shading indicates a 30-40% chance of above-normal temperatures. That's just marginally more than an Even-Chance condition. That means there is a 1 in 3 chance that the temps are higher than average. That does not mean the temps are going to be 70F or 80F. It also doesn't say how much warmer. It could be 1F more than the average and still be an accurate forecast. What would be bad news is a big deep red bullseye over Kentucky. That would mean a high chance of warm temps. Then I'd be worried like you guys.

What I didn't want to see is a lot of blue (below normal temps) and green( above normal precip) on these maps. What that means is that we get a lot of cold, rainy (and windy ) days. 2019 was one of those years, and when the snow came through, it got windy and nasty and the deer laid up.

No, it doesn't mean the bucks are all going nocturnal. What it means is that we'll good chance of fairly mild weather for season.

I will also say that not everyone is going to agree with my assessment. I find the milder seasons to be easier to hunt. If the rain and snow are minimal, it means my trucks can get in and out with the carcasses without getting stuck. If the thermometer doesn't plummet means my hypothyroidism doesn't send me into a cold-induced coma.

If you're a guy who likes slogging around in rain, you are going to see this forecast differently. It is what it is. I'm just posting the map.

 

[shaman]

Here's a graphic I picked off Accuweather showing the average November temps:

I'd not pay too much attention to the bar graph. That's what they're forecasting for this November, and I've found Accuweather to be slightly less reliable than a dartboard. The important thing here is the orange and blue lines. A normal low on The Opener is about 35F and the Hi is in the high 50's here in the Greater Browningsville Metroplex. A few degrees warmer is not going to make the bucks disappear.

 

[davers]

If you look at the map, the shading indicates a 30-40% chance of above-normal temperatures. That's just marginally more than an Even-Chance condition. That means there is a 1 in 3 chance that the temps are higher than average. That does not mean the temps are going to be 70F or 80F. It also doesn't say how much warmer. It could be 1F more than the average and still be an accurate forecast. What would be bad news is a big deep red bullseye over Kentucky. That would mean a high chance of warm temps. Then I'd be worried like you guys.

What I didn't want to see is a lot of blue (below normal temps) and green( above normal precip) on these maps. What that means is that we get a lot of cold, rainy (and windy ) days. 2019 was one of those years, and when the snow came through, it got windy and nasty and the deer laid up.

No, it doesn't mean the bucks are all going nocturnal. What it means is that we'll good chance of fairly mild weather for season.

I will also say that not everyone is going to agree with my assessment. I find the milder seasons to be easier to hunt. If the rain and snow are minimal, it means my trucks can get in and out with the carcasses without getting stuck. If the thermometer doesn't plummet means my hypothyroidism doesn't send me into a cold-induced coma.

If you're a guy who likes slogging around in rain, you are going to see this forecast differently. It is what it is. I'm just posting the map.

Back during the 2005 rifle season, I bagged two Doe, in a late afternoon hunt. The temp that afternoon was around 82* and the Deer were deep and low in the woods. Those two were the only ones I saw during 7 days of hunting, but saw several more after legal hunting hours. After I got them back to the garage, I went ahead and skinned them plus cutting them up placing the cuts in my two Coolers, it was that warm outdoors. I'd rather shiver from the cold on my ladder stand and see Deer, during legal hunting hours, than sweat and seeing nothing due to the unseasonable above normal warmth.

 

[hollandhunter]

I dont mind hot early season. But once the deer get there winter coats I dont like it as they dont move near as much during the day. The moon is hurting us right now. An I have always said the best hunting is early bow an right before gun season. Hopefully we get a cool snap soon.

 

[shaman]

I dont mind hot early season. But once the deer get there winter coats I dont like it as they dont move near as much during the day. The moon is hurting us right now. An I have always said the best hunting is early bow an right before gun season. Hopefully we get a cool snap soon.

From all I'm seeing, the temps are going to be normal to a bit above normal until Dec 1. In the week before Rifle Season, CPC is saying an even chance all the way around.

 

[davers]

I dont mind hot early season. But once the deer get there winter coats I dont like it as they dont move near as much during the day. The moon is hurting us right now. An I have always said the best hunting is early bow an right before gun season. Hopefully we get a cool snap soon.

A full moon + unusually warm days does cut down on seeing Deer during the daytime. I am certain, during day time, they are way deep in the woods in shade. Then they come out during the evening and night; I saw several Deer out in my back field yesterday evening browsing in the field. All of them were Doe & Fawns.

 

[shaman]

The posting of the 90-day outlooks are out. It looks like another La Nina-inspired winter with above-normal temps and above-normal precipitation clear into May. This is a carbon copy of what they were saying last year. If you'll remember, the temperatures in January barely got below freezing.

 

[120+]

The posting of the 90-day outlooks are out. It looks like another La Nina-inspired winter with above-normal temps and above-normal precipitation clear into May. This is a carbon copy of what they were saying last year. If you'll remember, the temperatures in January barely got below freezing.

They can't tell you what it's going to do a week from now. I certainly don't put any stock in a 90 day forecast.

 

[mudhole crossing]

I’ve seen great deer movement on warm days in rifle. I honestly don’t think it makes much difference imo. Now for comfort I’ll take a mid 30s daybreak temp.

 

[Hoene]

They can't tell you what it's going to do a week from now. I certainly don't put any stock in a 90 day forecast.

^^^^^What he said

 

[120+]

I’ve seen great deer movement on warm days in rifle. I honestly don’t think it makes much difference imo. Now for comfort I’ll take a mid 30s daybreak temp.

The cooler it is the more they have to feed to stay warm. I think they just get on their feet more.