Elk survey

Discussion in 'Elk Hunting' started by zone1, Jul 29, 2019.

  1. bgkyarcher

    bgkyarcher 12 pointer

    10,196
    2,545
    Aug 23, 2011
    BG
    It's because they aren't there any more. The state upped the tags in 2009, doubled the tags, which was a big mistake. On top of the double legally killed animals, the state has never recognized the predation and poaching numbers. Add to that the hundreds they have trapped and shipped out. Their poaching number estimate is a joke.... 10 years later, here we are.
     
    xbokilla and elkaholic like this.
  2. DBKY

    DBKY Spike

    72
    62
    Jul 29, 2019
    KY
    The bears will kill the hell out of elk calves, that is a solid fact.
     
    xbokilla and elkaholic like this.
  3. elkaholic

    elkaholic 12 pointer

    2,714
    714
    Jan 12, 2012
    Pendleton County
    It is probably a little of both. A friend of mine drew a bull tag about 5 years ago. We went down to scout and had a local guy helping us out. He said the year before there were elk everywhere. They trapped so many elk that spring or summer that when they were done the elk were few and far between. We saw more bear sign than elk sign while scouting. My buddy ended up killing a small 5 x 5. I know the Dept. of Fish and Wildlife care a lot more about those stupid bear than they do about the elk.
     
  4. T-wil69

    T-wil69 10 pointer

    1,331
    735
    Jan 16, 2015
    Can’t help but notice that the only people who love the draw is those that have been drawn, I also recommend a point system on the survey, a few years ago it was said that it would take 20 years to be drawn, well it has been 18 and a lot of people still hasn’t been drawn, I’m also for only getting drawn once in a lifetime, but it don’t matter what we want or what’s good for the elk, it’s all about the $$$$$
     
    zone1 and elkaholic like this.
  5. bgkyarcher

    bgkyarcher 12 pointer

    10,196
    2,545
    Aug 23, 2011
    BG
    I've been drawn twice, and I still want some kind of point system to help spread the wealth.
     
    zone1 and elkaholic like this.
  6. T-wil69

    T-wil69 10 pointer

    1,331
    735
    Jan 16, 2015
    I’m talking about the people who love the way the draw is now
     
    elkaholic likes this.
  7. 1wildcatfan

    1wildcatfan 12 pointer

    6,972
    1,825
    Jan 2, 2009
    raised n Bullitt Co.
    I'm one of those. I liked it before I got drawn, I like it now. I like the chance my wife has to get drawn now, wouldn't be there with a pts system. I play the points game in most western states and have 12-22 pts depending on state and species and waiting to get drawn. I've already stopped buying pts in a couple of areas as I will never get drawn and it always cost a license and fee which adds up over 20 yrs ($3000-$4000) and that's just for one species.
    What i see is that those that want a pt system don't know how they work, don't know what the odds will be and can't do simple math.
     
    netman8718 and littlebear like this.
  8. T-wil69

    T-wil69 10 pointer

    1,331
    735
    Jan 16, 2015
    If I had already been drawn I could see it from that point of view, but I haven’t, with points I could put in for So many years and be guaranteed to get drawn, without points I could put in for 60 years and never get drawn, given I live that long
     
    elkaholic likes this.
  9. bgkyarcher

    bgkyarcher 12 pointer

    10,196
    2,545
    Aug 23, 2011
    BG
    I can do much more than simple math. Bite your tongue. My suggestion would give an advantage to those that have not been drawn. It might be a slight advantage, but better odds nonetheless.
     
    elkaholic likes this.
  10. zone1

    zone1 6 pointer

    449
    75
    Jan 3, 2011
    I can do simple math. If T-wil69 has put in for 18 years he would have his name in the pot 18 times. If 1wildcatfan had been drawn he would have his name in the pot 1 time.
    In my simple math T-wil69 has a better chance of being drawn.
     
    elkaholic likes this.
  11. Tufrthnails

    Tufrthnails 10 pointer

    1,180
    157
    Oct 27, 2014
    Lakeland, FL
    My comment was to increase the downtime between successful draw to 10 years.
     
    elkaholic likes this.
  12. 1wildcatfan

    1wildcatfan 12 pointer

    6,972
    1,825
    Jan 2, 2009
    raised n Bullitt Co.
    While I couldn't get Deloitte and Touche to certify these numbers on such short notice, the head accountant said I was in the ballpark. For simplicity sake, using 40,000 applicants (not factoring in death, health, etc dropouts annually) and 500 tags allocated annually.
    Year one with either a preference pt or bonus pt system, everyone will have less than 1.3% to draw.
    year 10- 35,000 applicants (500 per year start over points) have max pts and odds (bonus), less than 1.4%
    Year 20- 30,000 applicants with max pts., 1.7% chance to draw.
    Year 30- 25,000 applicants with same max pts. 2% chance to draw, or 98% chance not to draw after 30 yrs.
    Reality, odds would be slightly higher due to dropouts.
    So over 30 yrs, everyone still applying, odds improve for max pt holders from less than 1.3% to slightly more than 2%.
    On the backside it would be wasting money for those with any age on them that don't have close to max pts to even apply.
    This was a pain on the phone.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
    littlebear likes this.
  13. 1wildcatfan

    1wildcatfan 12 pointer

    6,972
    1,825
    Jan 2, 2009
    raised n Bullitt Co.
    Youre talking preference pt (those with max pts draw) if you're talking guarantee, no guarantee to draw with bonus pts. With 40,000 applicants, 500 tags annually, it would take 80 yrs for u to be guaranteed a tag by these numbers, reality maybe only 65 yrs to pull a tag if your 10 yrs old now and live long enough.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
  14. 1wildcatfan

    1wildcatfan 12 pointer

    6,972
    1,825
    Jan 2, 2009
    raised n Bullitt Co.
    You are correct in your example, If it was only me and T in he draw, slam dunk for him, but that's not the case, there's a few more people involved that have to be factored in and that large number only decreases by the number of tags allocated each year (plus dropouts).
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
  15. bgkyarcher

    bgkyarcher 12 pointer

    10,196
    2,545
    Aug 23, 2011
    BG
    I never mentioned a guarantee, and don't see that as realistic anyway. But, any edge gained for those not drawn, would be better than no edge at all. I'd also like to see the OOS hunters in their own pool, and draw solely against each other. They can compete against each other for their 10%, or whatever it is. I'm just all in for any method to help spread the tags. Hurley had an unused landowner tag last year at the end of the season. He put the guides names in a hat, and drew one out to use the tag. I told him to leave me out, because I'm the only guide he has that has killed an elk. Only fair, IMHO.
     

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