21/22 Super Thread

HuntressOfLight

12 pointer
Nov 23, 2019
11,541
Guarding my lovely bluebirds
I need to turn my duck stamp in...

Well camoed boat, Robo on, off and intermittent, Mallard machine on and off... 60-80 groups of ducks and maybe two groups barely changed wingbeat...

I did miss a crow...

And 4WD STILL doesn't work after another $1500 and the 4 year no 4wd saga continues. I was lucky to drag the rig out. Rear wheels only in 4low. 4 auto saved the day..

Told you to purchase an old jeep, Sir...
 

aceoky

12 pointer
Jul 14, 2003
13,463
W KY
Well it appears some folks got with the local farmers and flooded some harvested corn fields a few hundred yards(in more than one field/direction also) from our spot, which sorta explains why no ducks this year when in past years plenty? Hearing major shooting from these spots makes it torture I tell ya!

Hoped they'd send some our way but so far hasn't happened...
 

HuntressOfLight

12 pointer
Nov 23, 2019
11,541
Guarding my lovely bluebirds
...
National Weather Service
Paducah KY
225 PM CST
Fri Jan 7 2022​

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 224 PM CST
Fri Jan 7 2022

Light winds and high pressure over the Quad State has kept cold
conditions stuck in the region with early afternoon temperatures still below 20 for the Evansville Tri-State. A shift towards southerly winds and brief ridging over the Midwest will allow for temperatures to trend warmer for the weekend. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the teens which is still well below average though also much less so than the previous night. Melted snow on surfaces should freeze again tonight, presenting another opportunity for some black ice tonight through early tomorrow
morning.

Southerly winds pick up tomorrow with gusts over 20 mph during the day. Moisture surges into the area from the Lower Mississippi River basin and temperatures will climb. With a fairly strong surface inversion in place during the morning, light freezing drizzle will be possible in the Ozarks. While no QPF is included
for the morning hours, it takes very little freezing drizzle for roadways and surfaces to be impacted. By midday, temperatures should warm just enough to switch over to rain, which becomes widespread by the evening hours. Low pressure moving across the Central Plains will help provide some instability to this system, but it will be elevated, and thunder potential remains low with a
slight chance included for tomorrow night for a few lightning flashes.

A cold front moves through Sunday morning, which will result in a
non-diurnal temperature pattern with temperatures holding in the upper 30s to near 40 Saturday night and highs Sunday will be in the early to late morning hours from northwest to southeast. QPF is now around 2/3rds of an inch for northwestern portions of the CWA and an inch and a half for much of Western Kentucky. The rain combined with the snow cover could result in some minor flooding issues. Rain should clear out Sunday afternoon, leaving a cold
Sunday night with lows near 20.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CST
Fri Jan 7 2022

Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be dry and seasonal as the models
agree high pressure will be in control and move across the area. There is a minimal chance of light precipitation Wednesday as a s/wv is forecast to move southeast across the region. The EC/ECENS and GFS/GEFS are in good agreement with this forecast. The CMC/E is the odd model out, with a much deeper trof evolving over the area. There is hint of this in the UKMET as well. But given the more progressive nature of the mid tropospheric flow pattern, we will not use the latter two at this time.

Therefore, we will continue with the EC/ECENS and GFS/GEFS solutions
for the late week period and our next chance of precipitation/rain. An upper low cut off over the southwest U.S. is forecast to drift toward the area. The expectation is we will see rain chances increase by Thursday night continuing into Friday. Temperatures will be a bit above normal for the mid to late week period.
 

FOWLER2671

12 pointer
Sep 11, 2009
3,851
Evicted from Aintry'
Well it appears some folks got with the local farmers and flooded some harvested corn fields a few hundred yards(in more than one field/direction also) from our spot, which sorta explains why no ducks this year when in past years plenty? Hearing major shooting from these spots makes it torture I tell ya!

Hoped they'd send some our way but so far hasn't happened...

That seems to be the norm...


That why I like big floods that make the corn clubs cry. Ducks spread out but that's how I like em.
 

HuntressOfLight

12 pointer
Nov 23, 2019
11,541
Guarding my lovely bluebirds
...
National Weather Service
Paducah KY
454 AM CST
Sat Jan 8 2022​

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 259 AM CST
Sat Jan 8 2022

Some forecast soundings show potential for low level saturation
by mid morning across our far west and northwest counties. With
temperatures gradually climbing from the upper teens through the 20s this morning, went ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory until 18z for areas west of a line from Mount Vernon Illinois to Cape Girardeau to Doniphan for areas of freezing drizzle. After 18z, as rain chances increase from west to east, rain will be pulling down warmer air and temperatures are expected to be above freezing and rising the rest of the day. Rain chances will quickly
increase from west to east this afternoon.

Temperatures may drop a couple of degrees after sunset, but continued southerly flow ahead of a strong cold front will result in temperatures climbing a couple of degrees overnight. Models show some mid level instability along and ahead of the front, so some elevated thunder is possible across our entire region
tonight. Widespread rain is expected through the evening and overnight hours, and continued with categorical pops for our entire area.

Models show the cold front bisecting the PAH forecast area from northeast to southwest around 12z Sunday, and pushing on through
our region by late Sunday morning. Elevated thunder will continue
to be possible just ahead of the front across mainly our southeast half of counties through mid morning. Rain chances will quickly taper off from northwest to southeast Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, with our entire area dry after 21z. A few snow
flakes may mix in before ending mainly in or northwest counties,
but nothing of consequence. High temperatures Sunday will be
before 16z, from around 40 degrees north to the middle to upper
40s southeast, then we will see falling temperatures the rest of
the day.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 AM CST
Sat Jan 8 2022

The beginning of the extended forecast period starts with the
passage of a shortwave axis aloft and the departure of mean layer
moisture to the southeast of the WFO PAH forecast area. Other than
some minor spatial differences, the deterministic ECMWF/Canadian
guidance are quite similar in the position of the surface ridge
building in from the north/northwest across the MS valley.
Thicknesses from both of the latest model runs also suggest the
center of the coldest air will shift east of the area by 06z Monday.
However, rather weak cold air advection and light winds will still
allow temperatures to fall into the teens Sunday night.

The surface ridge axis will be slow to move east Monday and Tuesday, and despite good insolation, do not expect much more than a 20 degree diurnal range in the east, to 23 degree rise in the southeast MO foothills.

Better Warm air advection will develop in the west Tuesday night in
advance of a minor shortwave moving southeast along northwest flow on the eastern limb of the southwest U.S. ridge axis running from TX to NV. However, with the speed of the shortwave axis/along with a surface cold front reflection moving through the WFO PAH forecast area at midday on Wednesday, decided to suppress maximum temperatures 1-2 degrees downward Wednesday afternoon.

The western U.S. ridge will become more progressive Wednesday night,
increasing thicknesses and raising lows Thursday night. Look for max temperatures to recover and move upward 5-7 degrees on Thursday.

Looking at the ECMWF Ensembles was impressed by the similarity of
all its members on the minimal standard deviation on height
anomalies and timing/location of ridge axis on Thursday. The ECMWF
ensembles and deterministic mean are similar in moving the nearly
vertical upper level ridge axis over the WFO PAH forecast area by 06z Friday. The ECMWF deterministic guidance phases an eastern Pacific trough with a closed low centered off the southern California/northern Baja California Wednesday night, and moves the leading low into the central Plains by 06z Friday. There will be limited ageostrophic response as this low moves in behind the ridge, limiting moisture advection from the Gulf of Mexico and eastern
Pacific. This low is expected to open up as a wave over the MS Valley, generating a weak frontal zone passage across the region Friday and Friday night, before the mean trough axis moves east of the area next Saturday. The best jet dynamics will remain further to the south of the WFO PAH forecast area, so see limited QPF potential at this time along and ahead of the frontal zone for rain chances Friday into Saturday. Anticipate near normal or above normal temperatures for Thursday through Saturday in advance of this system.

Given the amazing QPF/Height/etc. similarity in the ECMWF Ensemble
members, leaned closer to the ECMWF solution for rain chances later next week. The NBM initialization was also closer to this solution and was utilized for this forecast package. Although initializing well, the Canadian was too quick ejecting the west coast low into the Mississippi valley by as much as 36-48 hours, so it was ignored.
 

B.M. Barrelcooker

12 pointer
Jan 12, 2006
4,757
Aintry,Ky
83D63531-32ED-46F6-9981-E10E4810B1CE.jpeg
Aintry is lighting them up as well.
 
Last edited:

HuntressOfLight

12 pointer
Nov 23, 2019
11,541
Guarding my lovely bluebirds
Tis wet, snow is gone, and I just heard thunder. Radar looks interesting.

National Weather Service
Paducah KY
334 PM CST
Sat Jan 8 2022​

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM CST
Sat Jan 8 2022

Looks as though we will be transitioning briefly from the snowy
and frigid pattern of the past couple of days, to a milder and unsettled pattern tonight ahead of the next advancing cold front dropping southeast toward the region. In fact, our overnight low temps will likely occur around sunset, with temps continuing to rise through the 40s this evening. At the same time, mid/upper level flows moistens rapidly tonight, with winds becoming more swly as a trof of low pressure drops southeast into the Southern
Rockies.

PWATs are progged to climb to over an inch in most locationsahead of the surface front as overall forcing/ascent increases in response to the aforementioned short wave out out to our southwest. In fact, there is a decent chance many locations will hear elevated rumbles of thunder at times during the night as mid level lapse run from 6-7 degrees C and MUCAPEs increase into the 500-750 J/KG range. Still thinking most areas along and south of the OH River will pick up a good inch or two of rainfall before the cold front moves through, and colder/drier air plunges back into the forecast area from nw to se during the day Sunday. Would not be surprised to see locally higher amounts if thunderstorms manage to train more.

Back we go into the deep freeze Sunday night/Monday morning as
1040 mb surface high plunges south through the Plains. Expect most
locations to fall to between 15 and 20 degrees by daybreak Monday.
Somewhat better news is we may get into more of a westerly low level flow Monday during the day which, along with sunshine, should help readings recover to above freezing to near 40 degrees during the afternoon. However, yet another push of very cold air looks to arrive Monday night as Canadian high pressure dives south through the Midwest within deep northwest flow aloft.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM CST
Sat Jan 8 2022

Wavy northwesterly mid level flow will continue to provide mostly dry weather for the PAH forecast area until Fri. By Wed, high surface pressure will yield to a southerly surface flow across our region, with a westerly low level flow (at 850 mb), as a sharpening mid level shortwave approaches and moves through the region. The dry westerly fetch will limit any deep moisture pooling ahead of a weak surface wind shift on Wed, thus most model solutions indicate only increased cloudiness, plus a southwesterly breeze during the day.

Further on in the week, a rather narrow ridge aloft will build into
our region as the flow aloft at least temporarily splits into northern and southern streams. This will assist in a general warmup of temps and dewpoints to above average for us.

The medium range models suggested that, by Fri, a perturbation in the southern stream flow will move out of the southern Plains and
phase/merge with northern stream energy. At this time frame the exact form the northern stream energy will take is a bit uncertain, but the progressive movement of the system should limit QPF. We stuck with the NBM solution, which timed the main rainfall interval and surface fropa from late Fri to early Sat, with apparent
conditions too stable for lightning to be forecast.

https://radar.weather.gov/?settings...2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19#/
 
Last edited:


Top