Who's Bill Winke?
This is taken directly from a blog post following this past season. I don't have tons of years experience paying attention to such things (about 5 years at most that I have focused on bigger bucks and not just killing deer) but consistently getting rut action has been frustrating the last couple years. This year my buddies and I joked about putting the rut on a milk carton around the start of gun season...it seemed like it never really took off with the exception of one hunt I had Nov. 5th. Anyways, here is the quote:
"Not exactly sure why, but I am having a harder time predicting the best days of the rut than I have ever had in the past. I used to be able to count on November 3-10 as being good nearly every year. Recently, it has not been so easy. This past season, late October was really good, better than November here. I will keep tabs on this, but I doubt I will be offering any sure-fire advice on when to hunt like I have in the past."
My thoughts; The rut and everything about it is actually our perception of the rut. This perception is created from a variety of factors that are unique to every persons hunting situation. For me in the past there have been times when it seemed like the rut wasn't very intense, but when I thought about certain factors I realized that there were a lot of reasons for that. I also think being in the right spot at the right time, luck, is a big part of this equation considering deer patterns are unpredictable during the rut. Also I think it's one of those situations where most of us hear the experiences that mimic ours....ex; if we start to think we are having a weak rut, then we unconsciously read posts and pay attention to other hunters who say the same thing.
This year I was able to tag along on 3 different hunts back to back and the rut results were interesting. First I was in Missouri the last week of October. The seeking had kicked in hard by the 2.5 -3.5 yr olds the last 2 days of October. Then I went to Minnesota and we saw almost no deer and very little rut activity. Next I came back to Kentucky and saw next to nothing...deer or rut activity. The point is, there were so many factors affecting each situation. Minnesota was complete wilderness and the deer densities are low. Back here in Kentucky I saw very little, but on the same property another hunter saw a lot of action all morning and killed a buck within hours. Missouri I happened to be in the right spot at the right time which made the rut look like it was kicking in hard core.
But back to your original post about what Bill Winke says, I would guess he is not familiar with the science behind the timing of the whitetail rut, which would add to the confusion on top of all the other factors (weather, buck-doe ratios, over pressured deer, LUCK, etc).
Anyways, just my 2 cents
My God man. You don't need Bill Winke. I am now the premier rut forecaster, and I predicted the 2013 rut several weeks ago.
It always look darkest just before everything goes completely black.
I predict if you have too many does, you aren't going to see much of a rut... It will happen... mostly at night.. Get the buck to doe ratio close to 1:1 and then it's on!
The problems occur when people limit opportunities intending to "grow big bucks", then don't harvest enough does.
Any day outdoors is a good day...
Official Measurer B&C and P&Y
Nikon D300, D7000 Nikon 200-400 VR tele-zoom lens for wildlife.
Visit my photo gallery:
"I will sit there gun up and heart thundering and say to myself.....I'm glad I lived to see it one more time" Tom Kelly
However...one of my main property I hunt in Jefferson county is 160 acres. We killed 8 does before November. Killed 13 total by the end of the season. Did see good rutting activity nov. 5. Rest of it was slow.
In NW Indiana on the club I'm in there are 6-7deer hunters. Very few kill any does. I see tons of deer. Like 50% of the days I've hunted I've seen over 20 deer. Saw some great rut activity this year. Heard could be balanced and just a high density. I'm not sure.
Last 2 years have been weird IMO. However, the weather has been strange leading up to gun season and the first week too(time I think of as the best 2 weeks of the year).