Turkey numbers -- the good and the bad

[shaman]

I am looking over the Telecheck results for this past Spring Gobbler season. What I see is a mix of good and bad-- mostly bad.

1) Total numbers are up from last year, but way down from 2006.

2) Everyone was willing to write off the 2007 season, because of the stinky weather for the Opener. This is now showing a 2-year slide.

3) I hunt within sight of the Bracken/Pendleton line. I watch both counties. Pendleton slipped this year, but Bracken REALLY slipped in comparison to other counties. In fact, both the Northeast and the Bluegrass slipped in comparison to the other areas, especially the Green River area.

Here's the link, so you can play along:

http://fw.ky.gov/harvest/TurkeyByRegion.asp

There's probably someone out there that knows this better than me:

1) What's going on? What's behind the numbers?
2) Telecheck only tells the success stories. Are there fewer hunters?
3) What did the weather have to do with it? The drought?
4) 2007 was the first year I saw 50 birds in one day. Driving around the county I saw flocks in every pasture. This year, I saw nary a bird. Has the population taken a dump?

[ril7572]

I am looking over the Telecheck results for this past Spring Gobbler season. What I see is a mix of good and bad-- mostly bad

Mostly Bad???? We Just killed over 27,000 birds. Yes it was down some from the record harvest of 2006, but still a great year.

I guess there will always be "glass half empty folks"

[mcdenney]

Mostly Bad???? We Just killed over 27,000 birds. Yes it was down some from the record harvest of 2006, but still a great year.

I guess there will always be "glass half empty folks"

I agree Ril! Another exciting and challenging season with lots of birds taken. For sure a great year for KY! Maybe the slight decline had something to due with the stage of the birds also. I thought this year was a little tougher than normal due to the fact that most of the gobblers stayed henned up most of the season and just acted plain weird at times. I'm not sure of the reason but they sure acted different this year than in years past. However, when you look at the totals it is hard to say anything other than another great year for KY.

[huntindawoods]

27000, birds is a lot of birds, and we all know that there were birds that was never checked in also it's that way every year.

[Valley Station]

Looks like "jake/subadult" harvest records for the last four(4) years varifies recent years of "poor" hatches.
An indication turkey flock in decline, shooting a higher per centage of the adult birds in our flock.
Springs of 2006,2007,2008 jakes averaged 15% of the harvest.
Springs 2000 thru 2005 jake harvest averaged 25% of the harvest, 2000 was 32%.
Spring of 2007 was a "poor" hatch, should reflect "poor" number of 2 year old birds in the flock spring of 2009.
Lets hope this Dang rain slows down, we need a good hatch for a change.

[thunderchicken09]

Looks like next year there will be more 3 year olds if the harvest was bad.

[thunderchicken09]

I dont know bout you all but i saw more turkeys this year then last year.

[DearDoctor]

I dont know bout you all but i saw more turkeys this year then last year.

Same here.

[shaman]

Look, if you guys are seeing good numbers in your area, that's fine. What I'm seeing is this:



I had a tenth of the pre-season sightings of turkeys I had last year
I'm not seeing turkeys out in the fields when I'm driving -- neither Bracken or Pendleton
The harvest numbers for Bracken county are down considerably from 2006, and Bracken's standing in relationship to the rest of the counties statewide fell dramatically.
Pendleton County which I can see from the front porch is similar, but not as dramatic.

On the other hand, I see other areas of the state with good numbers, rising numbers, even great numbers. With the overall numbers down, what that tells me is that Bracken and Pendleton are having a worse time than others.

That's why I'm asking the questions-- not to be pessimistic or throw dispersions at the KDFWR, but to point out a regional variation. I'm seeing a 50 bird variation in Bracken County-- about 1/6 of the total harvest. That's like losing the entire opening day take. Compared to the recent past, where the numbers grew and grew and the flocks were visibly swelling, I'd say that's significant. If you go back just a short ways, Bracken had 400 birds harvested in 2002; this year it was only 255.

[Willie]

Looks like "jake/subadult" harvest records for the last four(4) years varifies recent years of "poor" hatches.
An indication turkey flock in decline, shooting a higher per centage of the adult birds in our flock.
Springs of 2006,2007,2008 jakes averaged 15% of the harvest.
Springs 2000 thru 2005 jake harvest averaged 25% of the harvest, 2000 was 32%.
..................

Could it also not partially mean that hunters are becoming more selective?

[Valley Station]

Willie,
It could.
However, with our turkey biologist reporting 1.8 poults/hen late summer of 2007,
what would be your conclusion?
I have a "gut feelin'" that when we see ratio return to 4.0, we'll observe 25% harvest of jakes, again.

[thunderchicken09]

I cant complain about the turkeys this year where i hunt. Things are starting to get back to normal on my uncles farm. The last 3 years there have been hardly any birds on it and the ones that were on it never stepped foot out in the fields it seemed. I did kill a turkey on it everyear except for this one tho.

[shaman]

Now that y'all mention it. I did not see a single jake this year-- I thought I saw one, but he turned out to be a very passive gob that was letting the big guy stomp on him.

[hitch]

IMO there is nothing to complain about in regards to KY's season totals. You almost surpassed TN in total harvest in half the time and half the limit.

I hunted KY opening weekend and it was just as good as it always is except the weather was worse this year then last year.

KY is in great shape, and no one should complain about the turkey hunting opportunities in that state. Come hunt parts of TN if you want to see what it is like to have a population that has been pushed to the edge and has been over hunted in many areas. Of course there are areas that are still great, keep in mind.

[Valley Station]

Hitch,
Turkeys are thick as fleas in Tennessee. Around Henry, Benton, Houston, Hickman counties. Ain't that's why they have a four(4) bird limit? Right?
A few bad hatches starting to show in Tenn.??

[mudhole crossing]

Hitch,
Turkeys are thick as fleas in Tennessee. Around Henry, Benton, Houston, Hickman counties. Ain't that's why they have a four(4) bird limit? Right?
A few bad hatches starting to show in Tenn.??
4 birds will def make a dent in the pop! disaster when mixed with a couple of bad hatches. i agree valley! jake numbers were down this year, but we still had a good season overall. now next season will be a dif story; alot less 2 yr olds globbling everywhere. on the the otherhand, ive taken a few 2 yr olds that were as tough to harvest as a four year old. in my area, theres plenty turkey, but getting harder to call in. the text book hunts are getting far and few between. maybe its better #s, heavy pressure, i dont know. but the last 2 seasons have been tougher than years past:)

[turk2di]

I look at it as not a 2 yr slide, but a one year jump from last season. The flocks in fine shape, given to the whims of mother nature. Ky has pretty much about peaked out, but i can see us hitting 30,000 some year. I know several hunters that passed on Jakes this season, all season long. Most hunters i talked to seen jakes, ranging frrom 4-6 to as many as 15 in a group. Some area's hunters saw very few if any. All in all, a great year as i suspected it would be. I would like to know how many spring tags were sold this season compared to past seasons. Anybody know how to get that info? Please post up if you do;) If u haven't voted in the poll regarding the season, please take the time to do so as it goes down Saturday. Thanks

[Kentuck]

What year did KY go to all day hunting? Do you think that might have an impact?

Here in CA we have to stop at 4:00 pm.

[bowhunter269]

I have to agree with McDenney........I think the bird numbers are still awesome, but the breeding stage was "abnormal" during the hunting season. Gobblers in my area gobbled like mad at daylight, flew down with the hens and stayed with them all day long. Right up to the last day of the season I had gobblers with hens throughout the day. I jumped hens off the nest late in the year and the one nest I found only had 2 eggs (on the last day of the season). Last year I watched a hen go to nest opening day and I found 12 eggs at that time. I think the hens laid and nested later this year resulting in an "odd hunting season", but the birds were still there. Just an opinion.

[shaman]

Okay guys, I finally had a chance to do the chart to show why I was saying things looked bad for me. I plugged in the numbers for Bracken County and the NE Region in general and I plotted trend lines for both. The NE Region's turkey harvest as a whole is trending up-- good news. However, my little piece of it is trending down by the same amount-- bad.

My assessment is this: If the overall region is experiencing a good solid growth pattern, and my piece of heaven is going down, this is not good.

I'm attaching the worksheet.

[bigpuddin43]

we havent seen to bad of hatches the past couple years saw two different groups of jakes this year one had 11 the other had 13 also on our two farms we killed 7 birds all 2 yr olds or older except one jake went out yesterday and saw 6 gobblers strutting at one of the farms and 2 strutting on the other. there are plenty of hens. This was one of the best years we had although we didnt kill as many birds. birds responded better to calls and had a week in the middle of the season all the hens left and made calling birds easy. had more birds this year than we had tags for had to call my buddy up and put him on two. best year so far for us.