Housing market worst it's been in 16 Years.

[Xi Bowhunter]

I heard that the housing market is the worst it has been in 16 years in 2006. There were too many houses built and not enough people buying them. This was reported on the national radio news this morning.

[Multidigits]

I call BS on that one.....there's not one vacant lot in the Fort Knox area that doesn't have a house going up on it. The market has been too good and a lot of used houses are priced too high, and don't sell quickly. When they price one at market value, it goes as quick as ever.

[lymanl3]

I just read the same thing...worst by around 17%....I am sure not all areas are affected the same.

"Last year's plunge in new home sales was the biggest drop since a 17.8 percent drop since the recession year of 1990. Sales of existing homes fell by 8.4 percent to an annual rate of 6.48 million units, it was reported Thursday. That was the biggest decline in the sale of previously owned homes since 1989."

[letmfly]

What goes up must come down. Just like the stock market and the business cycle fluctuates. Our neighbor across the street is a home builder and things are at a standstill right down for them.

[KYHUNTER14]

So would this benefit home buyers? home builders? neither?

I am in the very early stages of building a house, just wondering if I should step it up or slow it down.

[daking]

If you're building the house to live in, don't speed up or slow down. The value of the house is ultimately going to rise. You are going to live in it for a good long time. Worry about making yourself the domocile you want, not gaming the market. In 10-15 years when you're ready to sell it, today's market conditions won't mean a thing.

My parents just put the family homestead on the market. They priced it at what was the consensus high end for houses of its type in its neighborhood. They had a full-price, all cash offer within a day. Correctly priced good property will always move.

[michunter]

[quote=Multidigits;369377]I call BS on that one.....there's not one vacant lot in the Fort Knox area that doesn't have a house going up on it. The market has been too good and a lot of used houses are priced too high, and don't sell quickly. When they price one at market value, it goes as quick as ever.[/quotWell in the lexington market it is dead as it gets for new ,and old houses, I live in a neighborhood which is 4.5 years old over 40 homes for sale and are not moving, and alot of new ones are sitting still as well, so every are might be different!:D

[KYHUNTER14]

They house I am working on is the house I plan on living in until I kick the bucket. I am for sure not looking to cut corners on it. Just interested to see if this is time to get going on it a little more.

[WBBP]

The market in SC KY is very slow right now. I know several builders and one is sitting on 20 houses. This area has been immune to slow downs in the past.............but not this time.

The market will recover, it is just slightly overbuilt right now.

[grouser68]

This can't be true! Just a scant few months ago most members here said housing was booming! You just can't trust anything you here............except on here!:D

[gwhilikerz]

They house I am working on is the house I plan on living in until I kick the bucket. I am for sure not looking to cut corners on it. Just interested to see if this is time to get going on it a little more.
Follow you plan and don't worry too much about "reports". Those will change depending on the time of year, the location, and who does the reporting.

[Duster]

I do know that disposable income such as money to purchase property to build recreation type homes on is dead as it can be at this time. We have two places under developement on Lake Malone that nothing is selling..not vacant lots not ready built homes. Believe it or not the biggest selling in the home market in this area is double wide moble homes out in the country. Most are being bought by kids and grandkids of farmers and placed on the farm land.

[BigDaddy]

I am putting my house for sale by owner in a couple of weeks. I don't think I will have that hard of a time selling the home, but I guess we will see. Anyone want to move just outside of BG ? I've got a nice little house you might want to check out. They are building a new elementary school less than 1/4 of a mile from my house. I have put over 20K in the house in the last 2 years. Now the wife wants something bigger and newer, go figure. At least I will now get to look at my back door and watch the turkey and deer along the woodline. PM me if anyone happens to be interested in a house. I will more than likely post something in the classified section along with pics.

[JDMiller]

New construction of homes around this area ( Murray / Calloway Co.) has been steady. Couldnt say its slowed down or speeded up. However we have had a shift of sorts in the size / sq. footage of homes being bult not to mention overall cost.

Over the past couple of years.... homes in the $250,000 - $400,000 were being built. Honestly.... it had me wondering who was buying these houses in an area that really has very little industry. Theres quite a few of those still on the market and have been for some time. What I have noticed in the last few months .....I'm seeing the homes in the 1800 - 2000 sq. ft range with price tags around $150,000 being built. Theres about 9 of these going up in subdivisions near my home. Those lots have stayed vacant for years until now and I view builders can easily move these homes on the market.

[yote hunter]

the houseing market is like every other market they all have cycles.its just that the last 5 or 6 years housing was really booming and at a high peak.its droped off 17% but thats 17% of the peak not the overall average.

[aceoky]

the houseing market is like every other market they all have cycles.its just that the last 5 or 6 years housing was really booming and at a high peak.its droped off 17% but thats 17% of the peak not the overall average.


I think that is correct.....

[Xi Bowhunter]

I call BS on that one.....there's not one vacant lot in the Fort Knox area that doesn't have a house going up on it. The market has been too good and a lot of used houses are priced too high, and don't sell quickly. When they price one at market value, it goes as quick as ever.
It wasn't just the Knox area Multi, the whole USA doesn't revolve around YOU!:D It was a national statement.

[Multidigits]

This can't be true! Just a scant few months ago most members here said housing was booming! You just can't trust anything you here............except on here!:D


Must be the Democratic Congress.

[schroader]

Fellers I can tell you from experience. I work in the houing industry. the housing business has slowed down a bunch. the company I work for makes handrail for stairs and stair treads, door jambs, brickmould and door seals. Most of our stuff goes up northand the south. Around the 1 of october they laided off 8 guys, 7 works and a truck driver. They are just starting to call them back... It is coming back slowly but surely.

Schroader

[predator]

As a homebuilder, my little corner of the world is still doing fine. But I know some areas are overbuilt, the lumber market is the lowest it's been in awhile, but concrete and copper prices are still strong. I have some friends in Hardin Co. who are sitting on several houses, the Ft.Knox BRAC is moving a little slower than expected, but the market will firm up soon.
On Rough River and Nolin Lakes the market is still strong, but my bookings are 90 days out instead of the 6 months I have had for the past 3 years.
I'm getting alot of calls from subs who are needing work, the immigrant factor is pressing their bottom lines now that the market is tighting up.
The home building market has been going gangbusters for several years now and a correction is going to hurt.

[predator]

Fellers I can tell you from experience. I work in the houing industry. the housing business has slowed down a bunch. the company I work for makes handrail for stairs and stair treads, door jambs, brickmould and door seals. Most of our stuff goes up northand the south. Around the 1 of october they laided off 8 guys, 7 works and a truck driver. They are just starting to call them back... It is coming back slowly but surely.

Schroader

I know the company you work for, you guys make a "top quality" product.
Hope things pick up soon.

[aceoky]

For those who think the housing market is in "dire straights" what do you think is to blame?

The war, GW or what???? Thanks.....

[Wildcat]

It was just now on ABC News but they are reporting 10 years not 16 or 17.

This goes in cycles and I've seen 4 full cycles in my life time. Right now it's a BUYERS market, more houses and few buyers. Prices come down, buyers start buying again, more houses get builded to meet the demand of the buyers causing it to become a SELLERS market.

One thing for sure, they have not stoped building in the Paducah area. The Mall area is fixing to become a boom area again. The land has already been bought, roads planed and bids being accecpted, etc. All this stuff has to happen before you see anything but some of the building has already started.

10 years from now we will be saying the very same things we are saying today.

One thing we should all feel bad about is those illegal workers who are out of work with the building slump, maybe some will go back home.

[Art]

:confused: :confused: :confused:
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&Date=20070126&ID=6396915

[Hammer]

The market in SC KY is very slow right now. I know several builders and one is sitting on 20 houses. This area has been immune to slow downs in the past.............but not this time.

The market will recover, it is just slightly overbuilt right now.

yep! We can't sell my deceased m-in-law's house to save our lives. There are 750 and change houses for sale in the BG area.

[daking]

1) There is an important adage in real estate..."price fixes everything". If you want to move it, lower the price.

2) In the white hot real estate market we've seen for the past 20 years, a lot of people bought their first house, a lot moved up and a lot downsized. Maybe, just maybe the market is saturated. Everyone who is inclined to move has done so and is staying put. Population is not increasing significantly in Kentucky and the biggest cohort is older...not always the best home buying candidates.

3) It is cyclical . If I were hung with unsold properties, I'd get 'em gone, take the hit and gear up for the next surge. The guys who hold on trying to salvage will eventually take the price ding, but only after they've paid a lot of interest. Best to stop the bleeding at a cut and not a severed vein.

It's always darkest before the dawn, but the light at the end of the tunnel may be the oncoming train.

[NonTyp]

True, right now is a buyers market. Just sold a house, closed today, that I've owned for 10 months and for sale 6 months. The bank made the money on this one.:(

Ace, the housing market has been going full tilt for so long that anyone with a hammer was building a spec house. The market has just been flooded with product and buyers are a little more conservative right now. In this area lots of jobs (factories) have loaded up and headed for China which leaves the area unstable. I personally don't think W has anything to do with it but I do think fuel costs and the war are effecting what people (buyers) are doing with their money.

[Multidigits]

Might be that materials are about double since the hurricaines that we've had in the last few years has helped make houses higher than most want to spend.

[WBBP]

The hurricane theory is dead wrong. The materials haven't increased due to the hurricanes because hardly any rebuilding has taken place there....because the insurance companies hardly paid any damages............and then the government's money is just now trickling in. All this equals no money to buy materials.

Hey stick to making pipe/chemicals and polluting Louisville with chlorinated hydrocarbons and other air toxins..........

[AteUp]

Hey stick to making pipe/chemicals and polluting Louisville with chlorinated hydrocarbons and other air toxins..........

Most of the wind blows south west out of Louisville. Now go outside and take a big deep breath.

[NonTyp]

Might be that materials are about double since the hurricaines that we've had in the last few years has helped make ho
uses higher than most want to spend.


I guess the guys that build (as I do) for a living or the guys that own the lumber yards have been lying by telling me that lumber is cheap! The expert has spoken!:p

[WBBP]

Ate-up, no thankfully, it blows from the SW usually between 180-270 degrees in your town dragging the pollution right up the river.

You probably need to worry about the chlorinated hydrocarbons also...........

[AteUp]

Ate-up, no thankfully, it blows from the SW usually between 180-270 degrees in your town dragging the pollution right up the river.

You probably need to worry about the chlorinated hydrocarbons also...........

At least our air is free of cigarette smoke and our streets clear of stray dogs!:eek: How's the weather down there in Post Hole?

[predator]

I agree with WBBP, Multi, I have been expecting the hurricane rebuilding effort to hit material prices, but hasn't been the case yet. They are still salvaging downed timber from the Gulf Coast area and the pine market is the lowest it has been in years.
But you are correct in that overall prices are going up, this is from people wanting bigger houses with more features. Some young couples want to start with what it took mommy and daddy 20 years to aquire.

[letmfly]

Ate-up, no thankfully, it blows from the SW usually between 180-270 degrees in your town dragging the pollution right up the river.

You probably need to worry about the chlorinated hydrocarbons

also...........


Come on! Out of the east!!!! Just like at the farm.

[Multidigits]

I guess the guys that build (as I do) for a living or the guys that own the lumber yards have been lying by telling me that lumber is cheap! The expert has spoken!:p


You do trim. Are you an expert on drywall, plywood, garage doors, insulation, and all the other products that go into a house????

4 X 8 drywall is close to $10 a sheet at Lowe's, that's double what it was 5 years ago. Some products are cheaper, only because they are made cheaper.

Not everybody is a stupid as you make them out to be.

[Multidigits]

I agree with WBBP, Multi, I have been expecting the hurricane rebuilding effort to hit material prices, but hasn't been the case yet. They are still salvaging downed timber from the Gulf Coast area and the pine market is the lowest it has been in years.
But you are correct in that overall prices are going up, this is from people wanting bigger houses with more features. Some young couples want to start with what it took mommy and daddy 20 years to aquire.


Florida, not NO. I know guys that made a killing hauling sheet goods down there and reselling them. Drywall is higher than anytime in history. All houses have some of it.

[Xi Bowhunter]

I was shocked to hear about this, and I knew that it wasn't the same all over the nation. I know a homebuilder in the Owensboro area, and he stays covered up. What I don't understand is who are buying all these 200-300,000 dollar homes? Are people just living way beyond their means or am I not getting paid enough?:confused:

[WBBP]

Drywall is high beacuse one of the biggest dry wall production plants in the US caught on fire and was destroyed a year or 2 ago.

Stick to vinyl chloride and you will be way better off.

[AteUp]

Drywall is high beacuse one of the biggest dry wall production plants in the US caught on fire and was destroyed a year or 2 ago.

Stick to vinly chloride and you will be way better off.

vinly chloride is not nearly as dangerous as the vinyl variety.

[Xi Bowhunter]

At least our air is free of cigarette smoke and our streets clear of stray dogs!:eek: How's the weather down there in Post Hole?
IMHO, banning smoking in all buildings in Owensboro (except bars) was the best thing that ever happened. I think it should be that way nation wide.

[quackrstackr]

Are people just living way beyond their means or am I not getting paid enough?:confused:

Yes. ;) :D

I'm like JD. I have no idea who was sucking up all the $250-$500k (and some much higher) houses in this area. Those look to have slowed a bit and there was actually a surge in "for sale" signs at those houses that were only a year or two old a few months after energy prices went through the roof.

People buy a house payment nowdays.. not a house. Those low interest adjustable rate mortgage interest rates took off... then coupled with increased costs to heat, cool and drive to those houses and those folks couldn't cover it anymore.

[NonTyp]

Multi, first I said lumber and second I do build some as well as trim. I base my post on what I experience. THe biggest increase is in electrical and plumbing, which is unbelievable. Drywall is a small expense when you look at the big picture.

[Xi Bowhunter]

Yes. ;) :D

I'm like JD. I have no idea who was sucking up all the $250-$500k (and some much higher) houses in this area. Those look to have slowed a bit and there was actually a surge in "for sale" signs at those houses that were only a year or two old a few months after energy prices went through the roof.

People buy a house payment nowdays.. not a house. Those low interest adjustable rate mortgages' interest took off coupled with increased costs to heat, cool and drive to those houses and those folks couldn't cover it anymore.
All of these expensive houses may be why the housing market is at a low, nobody can afford them or they are coming to their senses.:eek: I doubt the second option.

[Hammer]

I don't have any stats to back this up, but I think a lot of people did some really stupid financing when the rates were in the high 4s and low 5s, and it's coming back to haunt them now. Tons of houses around here have a "Reduced" or "Price Lowered" sign hanging on the yard sign now.

[AteUp]

I don't have any stats to back this up, but I think a lot of people did some really stupid financing when the rates were in the high 4s and low 5s, and it's coming back to haunt them now. Tons of houses around here have a "Reduced" or "Price Lowered" sign hanging on the yard sign now.

That, and people were buying with the intent to sell in 3 years. How many people did that in our parents' day? Every house had an owner back then. One moving in, while one moved out. Man I miss Harvest Avecado paint themes.:eek:

[Hoosier5]

I knew that this real estate "Turn Down" was comming, when this was discussed last Summer on this froum. A Friend of mine, who happens to live in KY, told my Brother and I the otherday that he know several people who bought up land, in his area, (Central Ky) that are now trying to dump the property they bought. They found out, the hard way, that they took on more than they could handle. A couple of them have even gone bankrupted! Just hope they don't loose their primary residence.

[WBBP]

Hoosier, land prices are not down.

[Art]

So many people bought with bad loan programs that depended on the interest rate. Adjustable rates and interest only programs. They maxed out what they could afford but didn't count on the rate hikes, which were obvious to most.

I don't see the housing market as being bad for anyone except those who can't afford what they have. It's a buyers market for sure around here, but if you are already under a house you can't afford and are trying to sell then it has a ripple effect because there are more people who who can't afford their homes then there are people who can buy one. The builders were just following the market and the same thing happened to them that happened to the people who bought over their heads.

[Hoosier5]

Hoosier, land prices are not down.

The several, I looked at are way down! Also my Ky Friend said the same.

[Art]

If land prices are down, I sure have not seen it. I would buy some if it was.

[WBBP]

OK Hoosier. If you say land prices are down why don't you post up some details so the other 99% of Kentuckians can jump in the car and go by this land that is reduced in price.

K

[maxcam]

Fellers I can tell you from experience. I work in the houing industry. the housing business has slowed down a bunch. the company I work for makes handrail for stairs and stair treads, door jambs, brickmould and door seals. Most of our stuff goes up northand the south. Around the 1 of october they laided off 8 guys, 7 works and a truck driver. They are just starting to call them back... It is coming back slowly but surely.

Schroader


Thats about the time the word got out that the Democrats were going to control the senate and the house Im pretty sure......

[predator]

I don't have any stats to back this up, but I think a lot of people did some really stupid financing when the rates were in the high 4s and low 5s, and it's coming back to haunt them now. Tons of houses around here have a "Reduced" or "Price Lowered" sign hanging on the yard sign now.

If land prices are down, I sure have not seen it. I would buy some if it was.

Some people really did do some stupid financing, no stats needed just look at all the forclosures in the papers every week. When interest rates are at historical lows is the WRONG time to do an adjustable rate mortgage, especially when those teaser rates were used to qualify buyers. IMO never get an adjustable rate mortgage if you can get a fixed within 1 or 2 points on a long term mortgage. You can always refinance if rates go lower.

I'm with you Art, unless someone really got it broke off in them, raw land prices are still on the rise. Hoosier-PM with the location of the property your friends want to get rid of, I may be interested if it is close to me.

[maxcam]

I didnt realize we had any lumber yards in Kentucky that manufactured framing lumber? What are they using to make it with....?:rolleyes:

[Hoosier5]

OK Hoosier. If you say land prices are down why don't you post up some details so the other 99% of Kentuckians can jump in the car and go by this land that is reduced in price.

K

I would imagine that the prices of land is connected to "Location". Like here in Indiana, the prices of land are much higher if they are located in an Urban county or city. the land I was refering to, and also my firiend who lives in Ky was refering to, is non-tillable land way out in the sticks away from town & cities. As in Ky as well as here in Indiana, there are places where land values are increasing, but they are near cities or urban counties.

[WBBP]

Hoosier: The land you described as "out in the sticks land" is the very land that is increasing in KY. You said you looked at some land in KY, show us the high price (before) and the reduced price (after).

Also, we are not discussing the price differences in location, we are discussing your claim that land prices are down in KY.

[Hoosier5]

S Hoosier-PM with the location of the property your friends want to get rid of, I may be interested if it is close to me.

My Friend is not selling his land in central Ky; he just knows that there is a bunch of land for sale in his area. He mentioned he knew of a couple owners, that went bankrupt as a direct result of buying land. They got into a bind and was unable to make mortage payments. That is all I know.

[30WCF]

I've owned an excavating business since 1988 and I've built a few houses in the last 10 years.
This past year I worked on and saw less activity on new construction than since I've been in business.
I work mostly in Oldham and surrounding counties. I know alot of people in the building and real estate business and I know alot of builders and home owners that have been sitting on houses longer than I've ever seen.
The house building has kept up full steam and ran out of people to buy them now, I think alot of people made their move a couple years ago when the rates hit rock bottom and people are either happy where they are right now or dont want to give up the rate they currently have to move.
Most of the sales of new homes or contract houses I've worked around are people relocating, not upgrading from what they currently have.

[Hoosier5]

I've owned an excavating business since 1988 and I've built a few houses in the last 10 years.
This past year I worked on and saw less activity on new construction than since I've been in business.
I work mostly in Oldham and surrounding counties. I know alot of people in the building and real estate business and I know alot of builders and home owners that have been sitting on houses longer than I've ever seen.
The house building has kept up full steam and ran out of people to buy them now, I think alot of people made their move a couple years ago when the rates hit rock bottom and people are either happy where they are right now or dont want to give up the rate they currently have to move.
Most of the sales of new homes or contract houses I've worked around are people relocating, not upgrading from what they currently have.

I got that same impression, from what I heard on the Farm News as well as the regular national news.

[maxcam]

The housing market is soft....The market is saturated for the number of buyers that are in the market for a new home....Real estate will never be that way during a flourishing economy...Lets face it folks there isnt as much land for sale as there was yesterday....They arent making any more of it!

Just heard a report on CNN that 2006 was the 3rd best year for economic growth on record....The best 5 years were the last 5 years.....Lets see how long this trend continues!

[Hoosier5]

Hoosier: The land you described as "out in the sticks land" is the very land that is increasing in KY. You said you looked at some land in KY, show us the high price (before) and the reduced price (after).

Also, we are not discussing the price differences in location, we are discussing your claim that land prices are down in KY.

I can honestly say that I am only going by what my Friend, who lives in central Ky told me. I've seen land priced anywhere from $1,300 to $2,200 (in north/estern Ky). My point is that if you are seeking land; expect to pay more per acre if it is near a city or large town or in an "Urban" county.

[Xi Bowhunter]

I got a guy a mile from my house asking $25,000 an acre for a 2 acre track! This land is 15 miles from the biggest city (Owensboro), and right across he street from a gas station. He is out of his mind if you ask me.

[Art]

Land is always more expensive in urban areas, that's not a new concept. Again, things are only bad right now if you don't have any money OR you bought over your head and the rising interest rates have bitten you in the arse. The market is flooded with homes that people can no longer afford but if you are in the market to buy, right now is a real good time to do so. I've actually started to look at new houses if that tells you how I feel about the market.:D

[Hoosier5]

I got a guy a mile from my house asking $25,000 an acre for a 2 acre track! This land is 15 miles from the biggest city (Owensboro), and right across he street from a gas station. He is out of his mind if you ask me.

In Vanderburgh County (especially the Northern or Eastern Part) land is selling for about $42,000 to $100,000 per acre. This is mostly in subdivisions, but "Raw" land is going for around $25,000 per acre depending on location and road frontage.

[slickhead slayer]

When things get as hot as the housing market was, it has to eventually go down.
Alot of things happened to contribute to this slowdown.
Like people already mentioned, the rates were so low that everybody that was remotely interested in buying a home did so. Which leads to less home buyers out their now.

Secondly, like someone already mentioned, everybody with a hammer was bulding houses, and bigtime builders were building twice the amount of homes they normally do. The market is flooded now with homes, we have some brand new neighborhoods in Louisville with LOTS of new houses for sale. They have really flooded the market.

And like already mentioned, these adjustable rate mortgages haven't helped. Why would anyone get an adjustable rate mortgage when rates are at 40 year lows?????? The time to get adjustable rate mortg is when rates are high, not when they are low.
The market will correct itself, and pick up. Don't know how soon though?

[Art]

There are small lots here in Lexington going for $250,000 -$275,000..:eek:

[droopy]

i think the big reason for the housing mkt being down is the fact everything else is going up.oil which in turn drive food utilities and everything elseup.i planned on building a new house last year but after checking material prices i found going from4800 sq.ft. now down to around 2900 ft.with the higher prices i was'nt going to be any better off.i think the mkt.slow down is due to a lot of different factors.

[Xi Bowhunter]

You guys would have to know the land I am talking about. Where it is located, it isn't worth near what he is asking. I guess that is why it has been for sale for about 3 years. This guy is trying to make a profit no doubt. I just hope some poor sucker doesn't come along and get screwed.

[KYHUNTER14]

You guys would have to know the land I am talking about. Where it is located, it isn't worth near what he is asking. I guess that is why it has been for sale for about 3 years. This guy is trying to make a profit no doubt. I just hope some poor sucker doesn't come along and get screwed.


I stopped to ask a guy about a tree that had fallen (for firewood). The guy didnt know who owned the land the tree was on, but did try to sell me his house, trailer and 28 acres for $140,000. You may be thinking that this is not that bad, but you had to see the "house", "trailer", and "28 acres". In 25 years he might get what he is asking, but I still doubt it. Some people really have no clue.

[Hoosier5]

i think the big reason for the housing mkt being down is the fact everything else is going up.oil which in turn drive food utilities and everything elseup.i planned on building a new house last year but after checking material prices i found going from4800 sq.ft. now down to around 2900 ft.with the higher prices i was'nt going to be any better off.i think the mkt.slow down is due to a lot of different factors.

I agree with you here!