estimating the size of the herd

[Ross]

The article in the Herald Leader last Sunday said there would likely be a herd of about 700,000 deer this fall in Kentucky. For a long time I've been curious about how those estimates are reached. Could anyone comment on what the formula is for figuring out the size of the herd? Or point me to a good web site about it? (Actually I think this would be a good topic for a page on the KDFW web site.)

Thanks.

[raktrakr]

i too would like to know this. i think theyre goin by harvest results somehow and coming up with a rough "guesstimate"

[DC]

I didn't see the number in the article, but it's about 100,000 low. The number was 750,000 before the 2001 season and the harvest didn't reverse the herd--especially given a 52% buck harvest and a 48% doe harvest. I haven't checked with Jon or Jonathan but I suspect the herd estimate will be more like 800,000 after fawn drop this summer.

Population estimates are generated using complicated computer models where various factors generated from research are used to determine herd size and changes. Hunter harvest (legal and illegal), roadkills, predation, reproductive rates, other natural mortality, etc. are among these factors. Another indication used is beam diameters of 1.5 year old male deer

[mossyhorns]

DC, at what percentage of antlerless harvest overall will the herd stabilize. Also, what is the target harvest ratio for each zone?
Thanks!
Kenny.

[DC]

First, in zone 1 & 2 counties we have to play catch up. This means a doe harvest greater than 50%. Recall that the 2000 harvest of 51% does reduced the rate of growth of our deer herd by nearly 19%. A few more years like that would get in good shape, then a 50:50 harvest would keep it there.

One thing all who contemplate the KDFWR's deer management actions should keep in mind. We are a Department composed of extremely avid hunters. Just like you folks, many of us count the days until the coming of each hunting season. We've based our career choices (FW) on this love of the outdoors, conservation, and participation in it as hunters. The stories you hear about non-hunters or worse, anti-hunters is almost unheard of in State Fish & Wildlife agencies. In the KDFWR agency if you don't demonstrate an appeciation and understanding of hunting during your interview, you don't compete very well. Our highest goal is to establish and maintain an extremely healthy and balanced deer herd. This is a herd that is natural in terms of doe/bucks and mixed ages among all the genders. This is a herd that will then require 30-35% mortality/year to remain stable. Of course man the hunter (and woman) has always been and remains a very effective and important predator of deer.

[Ross]

Many thanks for your informative replies to our questions, DC.