Ethanol as gas replacement: Hope or hype?

[AteUp]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12934470/

Despite increased production, skeptics say corn-based fuel won't replace oil
By Dylan Ratigan
As the price of oil and gas has continued to spike, consumers have been left wondering – who’s coming to the rescue?

The PR campaign du jour would have Americans believe that ethanol is the Great Green Hope.

“We've got to go from a hydrocarbon economy to an economy that’s no longer dependent upon oil, and that’s where we're headed,” President Bush told NBC’s Brian Williams in a recent interview. “The ultimate solution is to promote ethanol"

As the president pushes ethanol as a solution to the energy shortage, corporate America is embracing ethanol to pitch its products.

But at the University of California at Berkeley, geoengineering professor Tad Patzek isn’t buying any of it. He thinks ethanol is a pretend solution that is, in fact, making our energy situation much worse.

“I think we've entered a period of collective madness,” he said. “And some way we need to get out of it.”

Patzek says the American public has been force-fed the ethanol myth.

“The first thing that untrue about it is that people think it’s going to solve our energy problems,” he said. “It will not. The second thing that is untrue about it is that people say it’s sustainable - it absolutely is not.”

What do the numbers show?

Last year the U.S. produced just under 4 billion gallons of ethanol, serving just 1 percent of U.S. fuel needs. Academics say production can’t go much higher.

“If we used all the corn produced in the United States to produce ethanol, it would provide only 7 percent of our total vehicle fuel use,” said Cornell agriculture professor David Pimental.

Here’s another sober way of looking at it: if every car in America was powered 100 percent by ethanol, it would take 97 per cent of U.S. soil to grow enough corn to support it.

And that's not all. It turns out that it takes more energy to make ethanol than it could ever generate.

“About 30 percent more fossil energy is required to produce a gallon of ethanol than you actually get out in ethanol,” said Pimental.

“All in all, it’s in fact a very inefficient system of converting one kind of fossil energy into another kind of fossil energy,” said Patzek.

That hasn curbed the National Corngrowers Association's ambitions. It plans to increase ethanol output from 3.9 billion gallons last year to 16 billion gallons by 2016 -- serving 10 percent of U.S. fuel demands.

Cornell professor Pimental has uncovered other dirty little secret behind ethanol production.

“Corn causes more soil erosion in the United States than any other crop,” he said. “Corn uses more nitrogen fertilizer than any other single crop, and it’s the prime cause of the dead zone down in the Gulf of Mexico.”

Corn also uses more insecticides and herbicides than any other crop. And each acre drains 500,000 gallons of water over three months.

So why does ethanol grab all the headlines? Patzek and Pimental believe its all about big-time lobbying.

“The companies that stand to make the vast majority of money are the big agribiz companies,” he said. “Archer Daniels Midland is the first one, Cargill is the second one.”

Cargill acknowledges that ethanol isn’t the answer to our energy needs. Yet with corn prices soaring, they're doubling production.

“We are becoming more and more detached from ecology and biology and more and more focused on our end game which is fossil fuel,” said Patzek. “And what we forget is that the environment won’t be able to deliver.”

[BDT]

That's very interesting; I'm no scientists, just a lowly engineer, but I kinda thought about this myself.
I'll have to do some more research before I take the word of anybody at Cal-Berkley.

[Art]

As I understand it, ethanol can come from other sources besides just corn. I watched a show about Brazil and how they are making ethanol from sugarcane and they have plans to become totally oil independent in the very near future. (This article only mentions corn?) Of course they don't have near the number or cars on the road as the US does.

My take on it is that it won't necessarily solve our energy problems, but if we add ethanol to other methods of conserving and more fuel efficient vehicles then it would no doubt greatly help.

Of course a professor at UC Berkeley is going to say the exact opposite of what Bush says, no matter how true or untrue it may be. I tend to believe that it's better to try then to do nothing and sit back a whine about it like these professors are doing... If they know what's wrong, then why can't they tell us what's right?:rolleyes:

[maxcam]

Corn is only one source for ethanol production......Switch grass and some cane products are also suitable. Also the reason we can only produce 1 percent of the gasoline consumption for this country is because there has only been 1 percent refining capacity created. It isnt a matter of being able to grow enough......I didnt realize the Cal and Cornell were the leaders in agriculture acedemia.....I wonder how many grants supsidized by Saudi Arabia they have currently?

[AteUp]

It isnt a matter of being able to grow enough......

Do you know that for fact or just opinion? If what they claim is true, it doesn't matter what other sources can be made into ethanol, if there isn't enough land to grow it on. (unless you get more ethanol yield from the other sources than from corn)

[quackrstackr]

I have heard several times that it takes more energy to produce than it actually produces itself, which is a losing proposition no matter how you slice it.

Other than that, as sportsmen.. it should raise a flag as to what is going to happen should it ever take off. If you think loss of habitat (especially on small game) is a concern right now... just wait until an agri-based fuel and the $ that comes with it becomes a viable alternative.

It's already a problem right now in Canada for ducks with the farmers turning over every inch of soil they possibly can.

[WBBP]

Quackr is right on this. Think of all the acres currently in the CRP that is now being planted with NWSG's. That all could be lost and a big portion of the CRP is marginal ground anyway-suceptible to erosion.

The bottom line is that as long as ethanol requires more energy to produce than it yields, it has a pure economic hurdle that will be hard to get over. I am aware of the other options like sugar cane and switchgrass, but they have their own problems and I just don't think they are the solution. You just can't spend a $1.20 to purchase a $1.00 for very long.

Anybody ever been around a sugar cane processing plant? I have and it ain't pretty.

[Multidigits]

Corn used to make ethanol can still be used for feed in cattle and other corn uses. It loses less than 10% in the process. So it's viable for sure

[john4]

Since the petroleum industry has said they will not build any new refineries in the US, any increase in fuel demand will have to come from renewables thus requiring the utilization of all forms of ethanol feedstock available.

[john4]

Also, with all the ethanol plants now in production or on the drawing board, we will all see additional fuel options. For the most part just hasnt happened here yet, go to Illinois, IA, Wisc, or MN and you'll see E85, E10, and boidiesel at every station.

These plants are owned privately or farmer Co-ops and if they weren't making money people wouldn't be investing in them.

And yes, Brazil is now energy independent. If they stopped their production of ethanol do you think they would still be independent? No sir.

[john4]

And if I need Ag related information I will keep UC Berkely in mind :) :)

[maxcam]

Do you know that for fact or just opinion? If what they claim is true, it doesn't matter what other sources can be made into ethanol, if there isn't enough land to grow it on. (unless you get more ethanol yield from the other sources than from corn)


Look at the amount of CRP we have right now....We are paying farmers
not to crow corn because the markets cannot move it.....But there are even more sources than just corn....There are several that are waste by product producers.....

http://www.e85fuel.com/e85101/faqs/production.php

http://www.e85fuel.com/e85101/faqs/energy.php

http://www.e85fuel.com/e85101/faqs/quantity.php

http://www.michigan.gov/mda/0,1607,7-125-1566_1733_23370-38575--,00.html


These links give you some insight as to whats going on with respect to ethanol.....There may come a day when you will be converting organic waste into starch and producing a usuable fuel for automobiles....

[Wildcat]

These plants are owned privately or farmer Co-ops and if they weren't making money people wouldn't be investing in them.




Sorry but that's not necessary right. People do not just invest in something because it's making money but the "likehood" it "can" make money. No mater what, it's a gamble.

Remember the "Dot.com" boom??? Very few of those companies ever made any real money yet people invested millions up on millions in them.

To make the most money and a higher percentage return you have to get in on the ground floor, that means putting you money in BEFORE a company starts to make money. Once the company starts to make money then other people invest in it causing the stock to go up letting the ones that had their money in before cash out with a profit.

Did I put any money in ethanol?? Heck no!! There is no "real" money in it and only a few companies will ever profit from it. If you think the oil companies are bad wait until the Ag comapnies get what they want.

Something else they are trying to keep quite about Brazil. Remember Brazil distroyed the Rain Forest and that's where a lot of the sugercane comes from plus for every ONE Brazil auto there are 100 in the US. There are more paved roads in Kentucky than the entire country of Brazil.

As for CRP lands, they are wildlife heavens. Plow them up and start growing crops to make ethanol few animals will stay around.

There has got to be a better answer and WORKABLE answer to replace oil,the one that comes up with it will be the next Bill Gates.

[AteUp]

Of course those facts come from biased organizations but I'll take what they say as true right now since I have no other info. If I understand correctly, it is used as only a 10% dilution to gasoline?

[AteUp]

There has got to be a better answer and WORKABLE answer to replace oil,the one that comes up with it will be the next Bill Gates.

Don't tell anyone, but currently I am working on building a car that runs on nothing but BS!

[GSP]

You'll blow the engine in this place!:D

[AteUp]

You'll blow the engine in this place!:D

Hey, easy with facts here or you'll set my project back months!:D

[daking]

The ethanol technology can work. Alcohol has a somewhat lower thermal value than gasoline, so cars using it will get correspondingly less mpg. It burns hotter, so when used in greater concentrations, the engines will have to be more heat-resistant. It does not have the lubricity of gasoline and it dilutes lubricants, so better engine oils will be required. All of these issues can be overcome. The flex fuel cars made today are designed for E85 fuel. That's 85% ethanol. A friend in Omaha is using it exclusively in her flex fuel Tahoe. Lower priced fuel, burns a little more, and breaks a little better than even. She's also keeping her neighborhood corn farmer in work.

The plus side is that the main byproduct of alcohol fuel is water. Any vegetable matter that will rot can be distilled. Grass clippings? Who knows? We already have enough land in crop production to produce a sizeable amount of alcohol. More efficient farming practices, full production of current farmland and no more banking of surpluses will make the nut.

The high price of gasoline will make the production of alcohol based fuels more economical. When the price of any commodity reaches a certain high point, substitutions are made. When gasoline was a buck a gallon, the investment to produce alcohol fuel was not worth the cost. At three bucks, it begins to look a little more like it. Plus, it's a renewable resource that creates jobs and cuts our towel-head friends out of the equation.

Any economist would have predicted this day. It's a simple example of supply and demand, price as the rationing function and substitution. It's gonna happen. Bardstown is going to become the fuel capitol of the world. Powered by Jim Beam will not be a passing joke.

Like Homer Simpson once said, "alcohol...the cause of and the answer to all of our problems".

[john4]

Corn Demand for Ethanol Soars
Friday, May 12, 2006

http://u15205752.onlinehome-server.com/forums/uploads/images/scoop_corn_elevator_11690.jpg
Escalating demand for ethanol will push corn prices higher this year, the Agriculture Department said in its supply-demand update Friday. The amount of corn used to make ethanol should increase by 34 percent over last year's use to 2.15 billion bushels, the department said.



Missouri is in the process of passing a mandatory 10% ethanol requirement. They will be joining the states Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Hawaii and Washington who also demand the 10% ethanol requirement. Add to that the fact that ILL even with no ethanol requirement has the highest ethanol useage in the USA


http://www.ilfb.org/photoservices/ethanol2.jpg

[maxcam]

Fields of switch grass provide a much better habitat for wildlife than a filed of fescue thistle and johnson grass......;)

[maxcam]

Any economist would have predicted this day. It's a simple example of supply and demand, price as the rationing function and substitution. It's gonna happen. Bardstown is going to become the fuel capitol of the world. Powered by Jim Beam will not be a passing joke.

I think Robbie Gordon may have already realized the true marketing value of that! It seems the boys of NASCAR are looking at using ethanol for racing fuel!

[john4]

ETHANOL COMING TO INDY 500 MAY 28: Illinois corn farmers have invested in the Indy 500 this year and in Ethanol’s Future by sponsoring Team Ethanol, and the introduction of ethanol is this popular race.
All drivers competing in the Indy Car Series this year – including the Indy 500 - will run on 10% ethanol. In 2007 all Indy drivers will operate on 100% ethanol

[Wildcat]

Fields of switch grass provide a much better habitat for wildlife than a filed of fescue thistle and johnson grass......;)


Not if your going to harvest the grass twice a year. CRP fields only get cut depending on the program anywhere from once a year to once every three years or more.

Guys,
I'm not saying they can't make money on ethanol, they can and will make millions. But ethanol is not the answer to our problem.

Ethanol will HELP but it's more a band-aid help. You can throw in all kinds of numbers but there is a limit to ethanol so it will never be a gas replacement.

There is also a couple things people don't think about but it will be true for anything we do to get away from oil.

Right now only newer model trucks and autos will accecpt ethanol, the more we move to ethanol the more we will have to buy a newer auto. Nothing wrong with that until you realize that sooner down the road your old truck will have a trade-in vaule of ZERO because everybody will be wanting to be able to use ethanol. You will be better off trading in now. Same thing with your mowers, power saws, boats, ATV's, etc. All that will have to be replaced.

Another thing that will limit ethanol is population growth. The US will hit 300 million very soon and in less than 10 years it will be 350 million. Just how much ethnaol can we grow to support that many and all the while the population keeps growing?????

Like I said ethanol is a help but not the answer.

[john4]

Your car, truck, ATV, boat, chainsaw, and weedwacker will run just fine on E10.

[Wildcat]

Your car, truck, ATV, boat, chainsaw, and weedwacker will run just fine on E10.

No they all will not. Check the owners manuals, it's there in black and white.

[john4]

"Another thing that will limit ethanol is population growth. The US will hit 300 million very soon and in less than 10 years it will be 350 million. Just how much ethnaol can we grow to support that many and all the while the population keeps growing"?????

This is exactly why we need to supplement our use of oil. We are already growing the corn, why not get dual usage out of it?

Besides, it's not the burgening US population we have to worry about, it's all those Chinese that want to drive a car.

[Multidigits]

Won't be long you'll see ethanol being used in heavy farm machinery. It's already in the works.

[john4]

No they all will not. Check the owners manuals, it's there in black and white.

In about a half dozen states you cannot buy straight gas anymore, all is mandated to be atleast E10. Guess they cant run their ATV, chainsaw, weedwackers anymore, :)

Are you already using a domestically produced alternative fuel in your vehicle? If you live in a major U.S. city, you probably are.

In the United States, one out of every eight gallons of gasoline sold contains ethanol. Most of this ethanol is purchased as blends of 10% ethanol and 90% gasoline, known as gasohol or E10, and is used as an octane enhancer to improve air quality.

Performance
All auto manufacturers approve the use of low-level ethanol blends. Ethanol blends (10% or less) are successfully used in all types of vehicles and engines that require gasoline. From a consumer perspective, there is no noticeable difference in vehicle performance when low-level ethanol blends are used. Because there is a slight difference in the energy content of ethanol and gasoline, there may be a slight reduction in vehicle fuel economy when using ethanol.

Availability

Fuel ethanol blends are sold in every state, and ethanol blends make up nearly 100% of the gasoline sold in carbon monoxide and ozone nonattainment areas during certain months of the year.

[maxcam]

Im startin to think Wildcat is in upper management with Ashland Oil!

What is your suggestion Wildcat.....Solar power or batteries?

Ethanol can and is being made with the waste of sewer plants not to mention sugar cane potatos and any other source of starch.....As far as CRP......The Fed will be forced to do away with the crp subsidy to force more ag in ethanol related products.....So tell me what the down side to that is.......Right now ethanol is being added in place of such harmful chemicals as MTBE and is required at a 10% blend or E10 in several states to meet federal auto emissions......

Its not going to happen over night....There will be plenty of time to make the switch....Besides if I want to keep my Chevelle I am sure GM will offer a nice big ethanol guzzling Big Block crate motor that will still roast the Bologna off the arse end !

[maxcam]

One other thing.....Ethanol was the first gasoline for the modern combustion engine dont forget.....The old FORD ran just fine on a little white lighting.......:D

Just thing boys.....A new campaign slogan.....40 acres and a still !

[Wildcat]

Nope, nothing to do with Ashland. Just a person who invests his money realisitcally.

The question was , Ethanol, hope or hype?

Looks like some farmers that grow corn are hyping it up dreaming it will make them millionaries over night. The will make some money but nothing close to what they think.

I'm not saying ethanol will not work, it does. It will HELP. But it will NEVER replace oil.

As for those half dozen states please name them. You made a great case for a class action lawsuit against Honda, Stihl, Husqvarna and Echo because all their owners manual clearly state to use ONLY UNLEADED GASOLINE. Two of them say NO gas mix. I've got them right here with me.

The state of California has several different mixes but they do sell straight unleaded gas.

So what are the six states????

What will replace oil?? I don't know but ethanol is not the end all answer.

[john4]

Wisc, MN, Mont, and Hawaii

[corndogggy]

It is my understanding that the biggest advantage of ethanol isn't necessarily to totally replace gas derived from oil, but to complement it by replacing one of it's additives. I think all gas right now has some in it, it burns cleaner. That's partially why gas prices are so much right now.

[trust me]

Ethanol produces its own set of pollutants. It isn't clean either. Ethanol is also water soluble, and if there is water in the underground storage tanks (there always is) then you have trouble. Gasoline doesn't mix with water and as long as you don't sump off the bottom, water isn't a problem. Ethanol isn't cheap and it isn't efficient. The only thing it has going for it is hype and the feel-good effect.

The answer to oil independence is smaller more efficient cars. If every personal vehicle got 45-50 mpg we'd be using about 1/3 of the fuel we are presently (my estimate.) I don't like the idea of a Tupperware car with a Briggs & Stratton in the back, but it would work.

In Europe, they can walk or ride the train or pedal the Huffy. We don't have a nationwide rail system, and our roadways aren't set up for safe non-motorized travel. If faced with the choice of smaller cars or staying at home, Americans will choose smaller cars. Our lifestyle demands mobility. Americans have to drive. We have no choice. We can however, choose what and how we drive.

[Buford]

It's been stated that we use more petroleum-in the form of diesel fuel and electricity to process recyclebles, than is required to generate them from raw materials.
Similarly, and Ive asked this before and noone knew, How much diesel will it take to create enough ethanol to power our transport needs. Ethanol is not suitable for heavy equipment.
If we put our agri-economy into full ethanol production, won't it require huge amounts of additional diesel fuel to till, plant, harvest, transport, ferment, transport again etc.???

[quackrstackr]

Biodiesel....... ;)

[trust me]

Buford,
Our city quit its recycling program. The cost of it all far, far outwieghed the benefits. And ethanol requires a whole lot more energy to make than it provides. I can't quote the numbers, but its something similar to 2 pounds of energy to produce, yielding only 1 pound of energy.

I always wondered why we don't burn plastic in energy plants. It's an oil product, and makes thick greasy smoke when it burns, just like oil. Seems like we could toss a bunch of Pepsi bottles in the furnace and then scrub the smoke like we do with fuel oil.

I dunno. Just a random thought.

[quackrstackr]

Plastic puts off a whole lot of nastiness that was added to it on top of the original petroleum contents when you burn it.

Styrene is some nasty carcinogenic stuff.

[Ky mustang]

No they all will not. Check the owners manuals, it's there in black and white. In most cases the only problem would be the fuel/ air mixture. This could be corrected with a little computer reprogramming if the engine is fuel injected or carb jetting. Here is some good info .http://www.eere.energy.gov/afdc/altfuel/eth_energy_bal.html

[corndogggy]

Oh yeah, that's what it was, it wasn't the "burning cleaner" part... something about the old gasoline additives were causing cancer and the Ethanol additives doesn't do that, so there was this big push to change it very quickly, but the infrastructure wasn't there.

[corndogggy]

In Europe, they can walk or ride the train or pedal the Huffy. We don't have a nationwide rail system, and our roadways aren't set up for safe non-motorized travel. If faced with the choice of smaller cars or staying at home, Americans will choose smaller cars. Our lifestyle demands mobility. Americans have to drive. We have no choice. We can however, choose what and how we drive.

Personally I think we have to ask ourselves why we aren't working to have some of the benefits that they have such as in Europe. I cannot believe that the answer to all this is just to swap out all the existing cars. True, it would be a huge help, but why don't we just sit down and decide to have more buses and build more bike paths? Seems like it would be alot easier. We are wasting a ton of time and resources due to traffic, so we need to find a way to get some of those vehicles off of the road.

[KYCatBirdHunter]

The first and most important thing we need to do is change our national culture. How many SUV's and large trucks do you see on the road? How many of these are necessary? The only reason this movement ever came about is because the people that make these things are pretty much the same people who make money from oil, and are the same people who indirectly finance major media outlets and publishing. If you look around at the top level of society, everybody touches everything, and if there's a way to tie in several different industries so that everyone makes money (for the time being anyway), they'll do it. And since all anyone who makes decisions cares about is money, now everyone drives gas-guzzlers. Who cares what our planet is like in 50 years. Doesn't matter.

We have to get it beaten into people's heads that yes, humans do make a difference; yes, it is getting worse; yes, eventually we will cross the "point of no return" in which we have so imbalanced the complex systems of our planet, that they will continue until our own extinction or near-extinction and work themselves back out slowly over time. There are still people out there who believe that global warming is some kind of myth invented by the liberals to advance their own political agenda.

[AteUp]

I'm not selling my truck!